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What Moves Currency Rates?

Written by Refco

In the currency market, traders buy and sell currencies with the hope of making a profit when the value of the currencies changes in their favor, whether from market news or events that take place around the world. Currencies, just like any other commodity that can be bought or sold, are subject to the laws of supply and demand.

When more people want a particular currency, the cost of the currency in terms of other currencies will go up. When demand decreases or people do not want to hold a country’s currency, the value will go down.

What factors affect supply and demand for a currency?

Economic Growth

Investors want to be sure that they are investing in a solid economy that is achieving steady growth. Currency traders looking to assess the economic growth of a country will look at unemployment, trade, and GDP data.

What Happens If...
BAD Rise in Unemployment
GOOD Fall in Unemployment
GOOD Rise in GDP
BAD Fall in GDP
GOOD Rise in Exports
BAD Fall in Exports

Interest Rates

Money tends to follow interest rates. If interest rates go up, money will flow into the country from all over the world as investors seek to capitalize higher returns. To determine whether interest rates will rise or fall, investors pay attention to economic inflation indicators as well as speeches by influential figures. Generally, the timing of interest rate moves are known in advance. They take place after regularly scheduled meetings by the BOE, FED, ECB, BOJ, and other central banks.

What Happens If...
GOOD Rise in Interest Rates
BAD Fall in Interest Rates

Political Stability

Election turmoil, changes of government, high unemployment and international conflict all make investors cautious to put their money in a given country. Investors will watch for major news that comes out of a country.

What Happens If...
BAD Geo-Political Tensions
BAD Natural Disaster
BAD Threat of Terrorism

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Risk Disclosure: Trading forex on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.