Dollar High Likely In Place
EURUSD 60 Minute Bars
The EURUSD has finally turned as we had been expecting for the last week. 1.5364 is viewed as a significant bottom and price is expected to exceed 1.5817 in the next few weeks. Regarding the bigger picture, it is possible that a push through 1.5817 will complete the second leg of a flat or the third leg of a triangle within a larger correction from 1.6018. The other possibility is that the EURUSD goes on to new highs before forming a significant multi year top. Either way, we are bullish against 1.5364. Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.5364, target above 1.5817
USDJPY 240 Minute Bars
There is no change to the USDJPY analysis (which we have admittedly been wrong on for some time now). We have tried catching this turn 3 times and each time the market has told us that we are wrong. Potential resistance extends to the 2/28 high; at 106.63. This is also a major congestion area. Ideally, a top forms before 107.20 (failure to do so would require us to reassess the longer term pattern).
Note: we are just as frustrated as many of you probably are…on the bright side, this is often the individual psychology that attends significant turns
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
GBPUSD 240 Minute Bars
The GBPUSD story is the same as the EURUSD story. After breaking to multi-day lows, the larger bullish trend has resumed as expected. As long as 1.9461 is intact, the GBPUSD is expected to exceed 1.9850 and reach resistance from daily highs just shy of 2.0250. Risk on longs can be moved to 1.9461.
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9461, target above 1.9850
USDCHF 240 Minute Bars
Same story with the USDCHF as well (but as the inverse of the EURUSD and GBPUSD). “There is little doubt that the advance from .9647 is corrective because a triangle separates the two legs. The only question is whether or not the rally from .9647 is a complete 3 wave rally or just the first wave of a larger more complex correction. Regardless, a bearish bias is warranted against 1.0527.”
Note: the CHF may be the outperformer (along with the Yen) as risk aversion is expected to return (as suggested by stock market wave structure)
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.0527, target TBD
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About the Author
Jamie Saettele
Technical Currency Strategist
Daily FX Research Team
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