Euro Breaks 1.55, Where Is it Headed Next?

What makes today’s record breaking day in the EUR/USD particularly unique is the fact that the currency pair is now trading above the psychologically important 1.55 level. Data wise, its been a quiet day in the currency market, but comments from European officials, the continual rise in oil prices, a drop in US credit spending and widening credit spreads have all contributed to the Euro’s rise. At the ECB’s meeting with the Gulf Cooperation Council today, Trichet was asked whether the Euro’s move was brutal. He repeated that he was concerned about excessive moves on the exchange rate, but at the same time, he warned that it is “very important” for the ECB to continue to “inspire confidence by solidly anchoring inflation expectations.”

Once again, inflation is the central bank’s top focus and they will not be willing to compromise their priority. In other words, do not expect the ECB to stop the Euro’s rise anytime soon and for this reason, we could easily see a move above 1.56, which is the wave 5 objective of our technical analyst Jamie Saettele. From a fundamental perspective, Eurozone economic data continues to surprise to the upside.

This morning, we learned that Eurozone industrial production rose 0.9 percent in the month of January. French current account, non-farm payrolls and Italian consumer prices are due for release tomorrow along with the ECB monthly report. These numbers are generally not market moving but the US retail sales report will have a big impact on the EUR/USD. If consumer spending is weak, like we expect, 1.57 could be an achievable target. Meanwhile the Swiss National Bank has an interest rate announcement scheduled for tomorrow. The earliest that they are expected to cut interest rates is in the fourth quarter.

About the author

Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist, DailyFX

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